As Russia’s war with Ukraine enters its fourth year, glimmers of potential peace talks have emerged, driven by US-led diplomatic efforts and shifting battlefield dynamics.
Despite a history of stalled negotiations and mutual distrust, recent developments suggest a narrow window for dialogue, though significant obstacles remain. The likelihood of talks, their mediators, and the conditions shaping them are critical to understanding whether this conflict, which has claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced millions, might see a resolution.
Background of the Conflict – Does Russia have the upper hand by advancing in Kursk?
The war, sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has seen intense fighting across a 3,000-kilometer front, with recent Russian advances in Donetsk and Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk offensive aimed to seize territory as a bargaining chip for negotiations, but Russia’scounteroffensive has reclaimed 86% of the area, weakening Kyiv’s leverage. Both sides have suffered heavy losses, with Russia reportedly losing an estimated 100,000 troops in Bakhmut alone and Ukraine facing severe infrastructure damage from Russian strikes, including a May 1, 2025, attack in Zaporizhzhia.
Potential for Peace Talks
The prospect of talks gained traction when the US and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal during meetings in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed readiness to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on May 15, following Russian leader Putin’s proposal for direct talks.
However, the likelihood of these talks materializing remains uncertain, with analysts estimating a 40% chance due to entrenched positions and recent Russian battlefield gains.
On May 10, 2025, major European powers, backed by US President Donald Trump, endorsed the 30-day ceasefire, threatening massive sanctions if Russia fails to comply.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia is ‘carefully studying’ the proposal but awaits further details from the US. Russian President Putin’s reluctance to commit, coupled with his demand for Ukraine to halt mobilization and Western arms deliveries, suggests talks may not be a sure thing after all.
Diplomatic Efforts
The United States has been the primary mediator, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz leading negotiations. However, Mike Waltz was just removed from his position as the NSA owing to a reported media leak for which he is held responsible.
The US ceasefire proposal, accepted by Ukraine, includes humanitarian measures like prisoner exchanges and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. However, Russia’s insistence on territorial concessions and Ukraine’sdemand for full sovereignty remain irreconcilable. European allies, including France and Germany, have condemned Russia’s strikes on civilian infrastructure and urged an immediate ceasefire respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
In March, separate US-mediated talks in Riyadh with Russian and Ukrainian delegations focused on a temporary moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes and a Black Sea ceasefire to secure grain exports. Saudi Arabia, hosting these talks, has emerged as a neutral venue, building on its August 2023 summit where 40 countries discussed Zelenskyy’s peace plan. The United Arab Emirates also facilitated a 205-for-205 prisoner-of-war exchange on May 6, highlighting its role in humanitarian mediation.
Turkey has offered to host direct talks, leveraging its success in brokering the 2022 Black Sea grain deal. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has positioned Istanbul as a potential venue, with Zelenskyy confirming Kyiv’s willingness to participate. Other proposed mediators, such as China and Brazil, have been sidelined. Ukraine rejected China due to its close ties with Russia, while Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s ‘peace club’ proposal was dismissed by Kyiv for implying territorial concessions.
Conditions and Demands
Both sides have outlined stringent conditions, complicating negotiations. Russia’s demands, articulated by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin, include:
- Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, abandoning NATO aspirations.
- Recognition of Russian control over Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which Ukraine considers illegally annexed.
- Caps on Ukraine’s military capabilities and an end to Western arms deliveries.
- Prosecution of Ukrainian troops in Kursk as ‘terrorists,’ with Putin claiming they violate the Geneva Convention.
Ukraine, in contrast, insists on:
- Russia’s complete withdrawal from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
- Security guarantees, preferably NATO membership, though Zelenskyy has signaled flexibility on pursuing territorial recovery diplomatically if NATO is secured.
- Reparations for war damages, estimated at $486 billion by the World Bank.
- An immediate, unconditional ceasefire, with Mr. Zelenskyy accusing Russia of bad faith due to ongoing strikes, such as the April 24 Kyiv attack that killed 12.
Latest Statements from Key Officials
On May 11, 2025, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov held a press conference in Kyiv, emphasizing Ukraine’sreadiness for a ceasefire but warning that Russia’s continued attacks undermine trust. ‘We’ve shown flexibility, but Putin’s actions—bombing our cities—show his true intent,’ Mr. Umerov said. He highlighted the Kursk offensive’s goal of forcing Russia to negotiate but acknowledged its diminishing leverage as Russian forces advance.
In Moscow, President Putin addressed the media alongside Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, expressing confidence in Russia’s military position. ‘Ukraine needs this ceasefire more than we do,’ Mr. Putin claimed, citing Russia’s recapture of Kursk territory. He suggested talks could proceed if Ukraine surrenders its Kursk captives and halts mobilization, conditions Zelenskyy called unattainable in a May 12 televised address.