The death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, at age 88, following a stroke and heart failure, has set in motion one of the Catholic Church’s most ancient and secretive rituals: the papal conclave to elect the next leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. As the Vatican observes a period of mourning, speculation swirls about who might emerge as the 267th pontiff.
As cardinals converge on Rome, the world awaits the white smoke that will signal a new era for the Catholic Church. Will the conclave choose a non-European pope, breaking centuries of tradition, or opt for a steady hand like Parolin to bridge factions?
The outcome, expected within weeks, will shape the Church’s moral and spiritual leadership for years to come. For now, the Vatican remains in mourning, preparing for a funeral that will draw global leaders, including US Vice President JD Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before the conclave’s sacred work begins.
The selection process that is a sacred and secretive ritual
The process of choosing a new pope, governed by the Apostolic Constitution Universi Dominici Gregis (1996, revised 2013), begins with a period known as the sede vacante (vacant seat), which started upon Francis’s death.
The Vatican has entered a nine-day mourning period called the novendiales, during which the late pope’s funeral will be held on April 26, 2025, outside St. Peter’s Basilica, followed by burial at Rome’s Basilica of St. Mary Major, per Francis’s wishes for a simple wooden casket.
Between 15 and 20 days after the pope’s death—likely early to mid-May 2025—cardinals under the age of 80 will gather in the Sistine Chapel for the conclave, a term derived from the Latin cum clave (with key), reflecting its locked, secretive nature. Currently, there are 135 eligible cardinal electors, though the maximum is traditionally capped at 120, a rule set by Pope John Paul II. The Vatican may adjust this number before the conclave begins.
The conclave is preceded by general congregations, daily meetings where all cardinals discuss the Church’s challenges, such as declining membership in Europe, growth in Africa and Asia, and issues like clergy abuse scandals and inclusivity. Only cardinals under 80 vote, but older cardinals may influence discussions. Once inside the Sistine Chapel, after the cry of extra omnes (“everyone out”), the electors take an oath of secrecy and begin voting.
Voting occurs via secret ballots, with each cardinal writing a name under the phrase Eligo in Summum Pontificem(I elect as supreme pontiff). Up to four votes are held daily, two in the morning, and two in the afternoon, until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority (currently 90 votes). Ballots are burned after each session: black smoke (fumata nera) signals no decision, while white smoke (fumata bianca) announces a new pope. If no candidate is chosen after 33 rounds, a runoff between the top two candidates may occur.
Once elected, the candidate is asked if he accepts and to choose his papal name. The dean of the College of Cardinals, currently Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re (though ineligible to vote at 91), oversees the process, and the senior cardinal deacon, French Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, will announce Habemus Papam (We have a pope) from St. Peter’s Basilica’s balcony, introducing the new pontiff. The cardinals reside in the Domus Sanctae Marthae during the conclave, isolated from the outside world to prevent external influence.
Potential Candidates
The next pope will likely be a cardinal, as has been the case for centuries, though any baptized Catholic male is theoretically eligible. Pope Francis appointed 108 of the 135 electors, shaping a diverse College of Cardinals with strong representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, reducing Europe’s share to 39% from 52% in 2013. This diversity fuels speculation that the next pope could be the first from Africa or Asia.
Here are some leading papabili (pope-able candidates):
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70): As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat who brokered the US-Cuba thaw and the 2018 Vatican-China bishop appointment deal. A moderate, he appeals to those seeking continuity with Francis’s reforms while maintaining theological balance. Critics note his conservative stance on same-sex marriage, but his global experience makes him a frontrunner.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67): Known as ‘Chito,’ Tagle heads the Vatican’s evangelization office and is a charismatic figure with progressive leanings, advocating for inclusivity toward LGBTQ+ Catholics and divorced Catholics. His youth and Asian background could signal a shift toward the Church’s growing Asian base, though some cardinals may view him as too young for a long pontificate.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76): A prominent advocate for social justice and climate change, Turkson could become the first African pope since the 5th century. His progressive credentials are tempered by conservative views on family issues, but his global stature and experience as the former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development make him a strong contender.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72): The conservative archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Erdő is a bridge-builder with Eastern Orthodox Christians and a potential compromise candidate. His traditionalist views on same-sex blessings and migration have sparked debate, but his experience in two prior conclaves bolsters his candidacy.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo, 65): A rising star, Ambongo represents Africa’s expanding Catholic community. His conservative stance against same-sex blessings aligns with many African cardinals, but his vocal advocacy for human rights and peace in Congo has earned him broad respect. His youth could appeal to those seeking a longer pontificate.
Other names include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69), a peacemaker with ties to the Sant’Egidio community, and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66), a Francis ally with progressive leanings. Longshots like Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy, 83) or Cardinal Vincent Nichols (England, 79) are less likely due to age or lower profiles but could emerge as compromise candidates. The adage ‘He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves as a cardinal’ highlights the unpredictability, as favorites like Scola in 2013 often lose to dark horses like Francis.
Selection amid challenges
The conclave will navigate a Church at a crossroads.
Pope Francis’s reforms such as welcoming LGBTQ+ Catholics, addressing climate change, and decentralizing Vatican authority, have polarized cardinals. Conservatives seek a return to doctrinal rigor, while progressives want to continue Francis’s inclusive vision.
The next pope must also address the clergy abuse crisis, declining European membership, and geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and US-China relations, where the Vatican plays a diplomatic role.
The diversity of the electors, hailing from 70 countries, complicates consensus. Unlike past conclaves dominated by Europeans, this one will reflect a global Church, with Asia (17% of electors) and Africa gaining influence. The large number of electors (135) may prolong deliberations, as cardinals, who rarely meet, must forge alliances.